The Texas Longhorns are scared. There, I said it. They are afraid of A&M’s potential in the SEC and are trying to do everything they can to prevent it, including winding up their statewide media network. “But Aubrey, you’re an Aggie, you’re just spouting nonsense.” Let’s take a look at this.

Why the Pac 16?

Why is Texas so dead set on getting to the West Coast? Because they will dominate the media of the conference from the set out. This is especially true now that the NCAA laid the hammer down on USC.  UCLA might bring their program around in the next couple years, but it’s not likely. Oregon is the only Pac 10 team that is even close to being on the level of Texas, and they really aren’t. Texas will own all of the media, and be the conference’s flagship school from the day the ink goes to the paper.

This is the total opposite of the SEC. Texas doesn’t want to play in the SEC because there is challenge in the SEC. LSU, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennesse, etc. Texas will not just walk in with flowers falling from the sky and wreck shop. That’s the reason they don’t want to go. The fact that they are willing to take Oklahoma State and Texas Tech with them to the Pac 10 is evidence that the academic line they’ve been spouting is a facade to their true reasons. They seem willing to bring Oklahoma along also, which counters their claim that another reason for not joining the SEC is rampant cheating. Remember, OU has had two different cases of players getting paid in the last five years. And oh yeah, USC just got hit with the biggest NCAA recruiting sanctions since SMU.

TV Revenue

For those that have let their emotions run wild and have forgotten, the Pac 10 television deal is even worse than the Big 12’s. So where is all of this money going to be made up? With those 9:30 kickoffs showing Colorado vs Washington State?

The SEC TV deal is clearly better. With a deal already in place on CBS and a new one with ESPN, the SEC is clearly poised in better position to make the move worth it for both A&M and Texas. With new teams in Texas markets, they could get more money in their deal because A&M and Texas would bring in the entire state of viewers.

So there are just a few things, now here’s where Texas excels. As I mentioned yesterday their ability to control their media is nothing short of masterful. So let’s look at the lines the Texas media has been spouting off in the last few days and break them down.

What they say: Texas is not a cultural fit for the SEC.

What it means: Texas really doesn’t like losing, and there are a lot of good teams there.

Is it valid: Absolutely. For Texas competitively, the move is clearly to stay away from the SEC. Why face the competition if you don’t have to. The Big 12 was essentially built around Texas and OU playing the conference title game in October, and the Pac 10 would be the exact same thing.

What they say: For breaking up years of tradition, the other schools will refuse to play Texas A&M.

What it means: Texas is going to be upset if A&M breaks ranks and tries to branch out on their own.

Is it valid: Again, 100% yes… sorta. If A&M wants to go to the SEC and still play Texas why wouldn’t Texas play them? That’s nothing but a petty argument because A&M wants to do something for themselves. If A&M isn’t afraid to go to the SEC, why should Texas care? The answer is that Texas is afraid of A&M’s potential in the SEC. Of course it would be tough for A&M, they’ve struggled on the field lately, but nobody doubts that the A&M program cannot stay down forever, and getting away from Texas could only help that. This gives A&M new recruiting lines, and a new way to sell their program to recruits. Texas fans saying that A&M’s recent successes against the SEC are a reason to not go are the best example of how scared they are. Does any Aggie anywhere on the planet actually believe that Texas cares if A&M gets their teeth kicked in by the SEC?

No, they don’t. In the 90’s Texas had no problem leaving behind Houston, TCU, SMU and the rest of the Southwest Conference. And the reason why is that those teams were never going to challenge Texas in another conference. Texas also seems willing to leave Baylor behind right now. Again, because no matter what conference Baylor is in, they will never challenge Texas. And for those that have forgotten Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have only been in the same conference as Texas for less than 20 years. In fact, A&M has played Arkansas and LSU twice as many times as they’ve played Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. So why does Texas care about A&M leaving? They expect the world to believe that it’s at least in part because they’re concerned for A&M. And that’s just ridiculous.

What they say: Rick Perry wants the teams to stay together and is fighting for that.

What it means: Rick Perry has white house aspirations, and someday he’s going to need the backing of the state’s big money. Because of this, he doesn’t want any trouble.

Is it valid: Unlikely. Perry might want the schools to stay together because it helps his election chances in the future, but it’s extremely unlikely that he will flat out step in and tell A&M to not join the SEC. The biggest reason for thinking that is that Mike McKinney is reportedly on the SEC side of this, and McKinney and Perry agree on everything. This is all about Perry just not wanting to ruffle any feathers and not wanting to be the bad guy if this goes down. In reality though, I don’t think he’s going to be the deciding factor.

So the Aggies are gone to the SEC then?

Not necessarily. Again, this all comes down to what is best for A&M, and that’s probably what is irking Texas the most. But the biggest question is whether A&M will decide to challenge the Longhorn’s bluff and make the move that is clearly best culturally and economically. And if you look at the numbers, that move is clearly eastward.