Here’s why I love conference realignment talk. First off, it’s all just rampant rumors, so you can’t really be wrong. Yet, at the same time, you can call everyone else’s ideas dumb. So it’s rampant speculation wrapped in elitism, or in other words, basically the love child of my two favorite things in the world. So of course, I need to weigh in on it. 

In order to make this easier, I decided to pretend I don’t know anything and I sat down with the smartest guy around on what realignment means to Texas A&M and our in-state brethren. That guy of course being me.

Hello Aubrey.

Hi, good to be here.

So, I turned on the AM radio and they said something about the Big 12 collapsing in on itself because Tom Osborne hates the spread offense. What does this mean for the Aggies?

Wait, what? AM radio stations are still around? Fascinating. Back to your question though, it’s slightly more complicated than that.

Crap, I knew it. You mean there’s more to this? I assumed it was like a game of Battleship. So what do I need to know?

Well, first off this is exceedingly complicated, kinda. 

Hold on. It’s complicated… kinda?

Yes. If Notre Dame decided to go to the Big 10, which is in and of itself extremely unlikely, then  that probably would be all that happened.

Why do we care what Notre Dame does?

Well Notre Dame is worth like a gazillion dollars in college football Monopoly. It’s like Park Place, on top of the Boardwalk, with 615 hotels on it. So if the Big 10 were to get Notre Dame, that would bring them up to 12 teams, give them a championship game, and probably make their TV contract worth an obscene amount of money.

Oh yeah, that sounds like a good plan, the Big 12 should get Notre Dame.

Well we can’t.

Why not?

Because the Big 12 sucks big time. Let’s go back a bit. There are a bunch of conferences, but the Big 10, despite its mediocre football and its basketball from the 1950’s has all of the money. So basically they get to do whatever they want and we all get to sit and watch. 

And nobody can do anything about it? Everyone is doomed? The Big 10 just gets to hose all of us?

Yeah pretty much. I mean the SEC could do something if they really wanted to, but they already have the teams they want and they don’t really need any more. So essentially yes, it’s up to the Big 10.

Okay, I think I’ve got it, so if Notre Dame goes to the Big 10, they’ll sit on their giant pile of money and laugh at all of us and not worry about ruining college sports forever. What happens if they don’t get Notre Dame?

Well, that’s where the Big 12 gets involved. After Notre Dame, Nebraska would probably be the biggest target for the Big 10.

Nebraska you say? I’ve been hearing all of this crap about Missouri.

Nobody really cares about Missouri. I mean they could go to the Big 10, but it wouldn’t completely ruin the Big 12 like if Nebraska leaves.

Oh yeah? But Nebraska has a great time in the Big 12 and everyone in the Big 12 loves each other so we should be able to hold on to Nebraska right? I mean they’re like a cornerstone of the Big 12.

Umm… about that… really the only thing that matters in the Big 12 is Texas. Remember how I said Notre Dame was worth all of that monopoly money? Well Texas is worth just as much if not more. Seriously, they’re like a small country. Actually not even that small of a country. Anyway, they’re loaded.

So Nebraska doesn’t really like this, and Tom Osborn is old and grumpy and still upset that their rivalry with Oklahoma got split up when the Big 12 formed.

They sound like a bunch of whining babies. It’s not Texas’ fault they’re so good.

Yeah, that’s sort of true. But the Big 10 pays out close to 20 million dollars per team where the Big 12 pays out around ten. So if the Big 10 wanted to invite Nebraska, it would clearly be a worthwhile move to go there.

Okay, so Nebraska would go to the Big 10. Well the Big 12 would just pick up someone like TCU and be good to go.

No. Okay here’s where this gets really complicated. Should Nebraska leave, it would lower the collective value of the Big 12, especially in the Big 12 North. It would make that half of the league worth nothing compared to the South. So the Pac 10 sounds like they’re willing to extend offers to the Big 12 South to bring them to the Pac 10 to form a 16 team league. That TV contract would be worth a boatload. 

What? The Pac 10? It’s like 1.4 trillion miles from College Station to that town that Washington State is in… I don’t know what it’s called.

Yes, this is true. But the TV value would probably outweigh that. 

So, let’s recap. Nebraska would make more money in the Big 10?

Yes.

And everyone in the South would make more money in the Pac 10? 

Yes.

…..

What?

Well… it seems to me like everyone makes the most money by killing the Big 12. 

Yep.

So why do my Aggies want to stay in the Big 12? Hell, why does ANYONE want to stay in the Big 12?

Now that is a good question. It’s because Texas has a genius athletic department. Let me explain.

Texas has this vision of launching their own TV network. Now they wouldn’t be able to show football games on it (their football games are all on TV anyway so it doesn’t really matter,) but they’d be able to show a lot of things on it. With ad revenue and everything it would probably net the Longhorns a few million dollars a year, at least. This is money that they would not be required to share with the rest of the conference. So for Texas the ideal situation is to stay in the Big 12 where they can make this happen. 

As such, the “Big 12” (read: Texas Athletic Director DeLoss Dodds) wants Nebraska to commit to the Big 12 with everyone else. Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State know that if the Big 12 falls they would be in trouble so they all agreed. Baylor just wants people to like them so they jumped on board. Texas Tech thought they were taking lunch orders so they agreed. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State don’t even know economics so they’re on the “we’re with Texas” bandwagon, and the Aggies don’t really have much of a choice at this point so Bill Byrne was like “huh? what? oh yeah we’re with Texas also.”

So Texas wants to stay in the Big 12 so that they can start their own TV network, four other teams are better off in the Big 12 than they would be anywhere else, and the rest are sort of stuck?

Correct. 

I’m so confused… wouldn’t it be better for the teams that could get a better deal outside the Big 12 to leave with or without Texas?
 

Nope.

I hate you

I’m sorry. The problem is that without Texas, the Pac 10 TV deal may not be worth that much more by getting the others… so they might be better off just sitting in the boat and being nice.

But doesn’t that lead to Texas creating their own network and scoring billions of dollars, DeLoss Dodds rolling around in piles of money, and the Longhorn Empire marching along their path to world domination?

Yep.

Damnit… well at least Baylor’s going to get screwed in this whole thing! About time they got knocked back to their rightful place. Have fun in the WAC Bears!

umm…

Oh no…

Yeah… well it looks like the Pac 10 has already started caving to Texas and Baylor may be getting a Pac 10 invite also.

For the love of god why? It’s a private school in Waco, Texas. Colorado is a public school near Denver. 

Well they both suck terribly and don’t really bring much, but apparently a few members of the Texas Legislature have somehow swindled Baylor’s way in by playing the rare but surprisingly effective “Hey, look, they’re practically the same, but this one is green!” card.

So… Baylor comes along, that’s not so bad I guess, at least Texas won’t get to start their own network in the Pac 10. I suppose I could live with that. 

Yeah, it’ll be okay I guess. 

So that’s what’s probably going to happen… is there a crazy scenario that results in the Aggies branching off from Texas and doing something awesome?

Yes, but this has gotten a little long so let’s do a separate interview for that.

(To Be Continued…)